Following US President Donald Trump’s imposition of 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports on Monday, February 10, the global steel market, including steel producers in Asia and India, has been discussing the potential effect of these new trade regulations.
Although Indian steelmakers are less concerned about the new US tariffs, as the US is not a primary market for them, with most of their exports going to the Middle East, Africa and Asia, most market insiders remain uneasy, with Indian steel mills responding by calling it "a wake-up call for the Indian steel industry."
According to Indian steel manufacturers, the global steel industry is expected to become increasingly regionalized over the next decade, with seaborne trade between countries declining, except for specialized steel grades, where cost advantages support continued international trade. At the same time, India's domestic steel demand is projected to reach 300 million mt per year by 2030–2032. However, a reality check is necessary before making significant expansion investments. “This serves as a warning for Indian steel mills to reconsider expansion plans based on exports to the EU or the USA. Expansion should be aligned with realistic domestic demand projections rather than relying on uncertain export markets. Producing steel solely for distress sales is not a sustainable strategy. Given India’s large domestic market, dependence on exports should be minimized,” a representative of Indian steel mill JSPL told SteelOrbis.
At the same time, to generate foreign exchange revenue, the steel industry should diversify into component manufacturing, capital goods, and machinery production. Meanwhile, steel prices in the US are expected to rise, while scrap availability will decline as domestic mills operate at full capacity. This could drive upward momentum in global steel prices.
As for other Asian steel markets, the new tariffs will further impact China, despite existing high duties having already significantly curtailed its export volumes to the world's largest economy. Furthermore, not only will direct Chinese steel exports be affected but also re-exports of Chinese steel from such Asian countries South Korea and Vietnam as well as from Canada and Mexico. “South Korean steel is the biggest concern of the US, given that they are the fourth largest steel exporter to the country with 2.8 million mt exported in 2024, following Canada (6.56 million mt), Brazil (4.50 miilion mt) and Mexico (3.52 million mt).
“We also do not exclude more tariffs or antidumping to be imposed by Trump, which will have even more effect on the Asian steel market,” an international trader told SteelOrbis.