According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2025-2026/Q2 2025 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), in the fourth quarter of 2024 apparent steel consumption in the EU-27 amounted to 30.1 million mt, up by 0.5 percent year on year. However, contrary to earlier expectations of a more favorable industrial outlook and an improved steel demand, EUROFER revised its consumption forecast to 0.9 decline, largely due to the impact of US tariffs and resulting uncertainty.
According to EUROFER, a recovery in steel demand remains subject to global uncertainty. No improvement in apparent steel consumption is expected before the first quarter of 2026, and consumption volumes are expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels.
In 2024, the output of steel-using sectors declined by 3.7 percent year on year, compared to previous estimations at 3.3 percent. The decrease in construction and automotive output was the main contributor to this drop. For 2025, output is expected to go down by 0.9 percent. 2026 may see a 3.4 percent rebound.
All in all, the outlook for 2025 and 2026 remains overshadowed by a worsening combination of very high tariff-related uncertainty, weak conditions in manufacturing sectors – and consequently lackluster steel demand - severe geopolitical tensions, and broader economic challenges.