During the panel session of the SteelOrbis Spring 2025 Conference & 92nd IREPAS Meeting held in Athens on April 27-29, Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and also the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the findings of the committee meeting on the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that a challenging year is expected going forward.
Looking at the EU, Mr. Björkman noted that the EU steel industry has started the year quite well, though steel production in the region was low in the first quarter. He highlighted that the new German government is expected to ease the pressure from the uncertainties on the market, which may boost steel production. Noting that the green transition in the EU seems to be postponed, indicating that there seems to be no viable transition until at least 2030, he stated that a lot of mills in the EU will start shifting from the blast furnace route to the electric arc furnace route in the next five to 10 years and there will be uneven demand for scrap until that time. Addressing the scrap export restriction plans in the EU, he stated that, as scrap demand is low in the region now, any restrictions would put pressure on the steel industry, while the producers who want to continue purchasing scrap from the EU will need to take steps towards decarbonization in their plants.
Regarding the Trump administration’s tariff actions, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in the first few months this year, sales to the US were at enormous levels as a new tariff was anticipated. Noting that EU-based mills were running at high capacity to export to the US before the implementation of new measures, he said he believes that the market will be much slower in the second half of this year. He added that Trump’s second term will be much different than his first term. In addition, he expressed the belief that, despite the actions taken by the US, Canada and Mexico will not impose tax on steel exports to the US as the US is their biggest trade partner and a restriction would hurt their own industries.
Regarding raw materials, Björkman stated that iron ore prices have been fluctuating at around $100/mt CFR, compared to $89/mt CFR seen in September 2024, due to higher production at the end of last year and early this year. He noted that, if China lowers steel production and the general output of iron ore increases, these two factors together will result in lower iron ore prices. Regarding the current situation in the financing of the trading of scrap, he noted that the Black Sea segment is experiencing financial challenges, making competition difficult amid high financing costs.