India is actively pursuing the implementation of a temporary safeguard duty on steel imports to protect its domestic steel industry from the adverse effects of cheap imports, particularly from China. Thus, this week new rumors about the imposition of a 12 percent “temporary” levy or a safeguard duty on imports of alloy and non-alloy steel flat products have started to circulate in the market, though no official confirmation has been provided by the time of publication.
Growing global challenges, such as potential US tariffs and the threat of increased imports from Asia-Pacific nations, have heightened anticipations of safeguard measures to protect Indian steel manufacturers struggling with declining prices. As a result, market insiders have been discussing the possibility of a levy structured in a way that it would be triggered once the landed price of flat steel products exceeds a specified threshold. The effective floor of the landed price has been specified as: hot rolled coil (HRC) $675/mt, hot rolled plates (HRP) $695/mt, cold rolled coils (CRC) $825/mt, coated flat steel $861/mt and color coated flat steel $964/mt. However, according to market insiders, including a representatives of one of the biggest steel mills in India, “This is not possible as it will be impossible to fix import prices, and this is just a strong rumor circulating in market.”
According to sources, a more realistic scenario is that, while Indian steelmakers have advocated for a 25 percent safeguard duty on flat steel imports, market analysts predict that, if implemented, the tariff will likely be closer to 15 percent. At the same time, it is worth mentioning that Indian steel producers are using this opportunity to intensify their push for safeguard duties to curb HRC imports, especially from nations covered under India’s free trade agreements (FTAs), according to market participants. While imports from Japan and South Korea are exempt from basic customs duties under these agreements, shipments from China face a 7.5 percent import duty.
According to government data, during the first ten months (April-January) of the fiscal year 2024-2025, finished steel imports from South Korea, China and Japan accounted for 78 percent of total shipments into the country. Of these, South Korea was the largest exporter during this period, with 2.4 million mt, a rise of 11.7 percent, followed by China at 2.3 million mt, up 3.4 percent and Japan 1.8 million mt, a rise of 88.6 percent.
“India's HRC export activity has remained sluggish, with mills holding back from formal export offers in the last months and especially in recent weeks mainly due to their preference to capitalize on higher domestic prices after safeguard measures are introduced, rather than accepting lower export prices at present. So, it is likely the announcement of safeguard duties is likely to be announced soon,” the representative of a mill told SteelOrbis.