The SteelOrbis 16th Annual Rebar & Wire Rod Conference took place on Monday, January 20th at the Planet Hollywood Las Vegas Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. About 100 traders, executives and market experts from around the globe registered for this year’s event, which focused on key demand drivers, tariffs and trade issues, as well as the all-important price outlook moving forward. The effect of financial and political events on the economies of the US, EU and China were also featured as were the impacts of wars and political crises on the global economy. The effect of the new Trump administration on domestic and global trade as well as the impacts of economies on the construction sectors and infrastructure were also highlighted.
Following opening and welcome remarks from Murat Eryilmaz, general manager of SteelOrbis, this year’s event was moderated by Murat Askin, founder and CEO at Chicago, Illinois-based StaalX, an independent online e-commerce platform for long steel trading that brings together a diverse group of unanimous buyers and sellers from all around the globe.
“Our mission is to provide value to both buyers and sellers by making transactions simpler through innovative technology,” Askin said. “We are committed to the industry and devoted to business. We continue to innovate and discover tools that will make commercial transactions easier.”
This year’s presenters include F.D. Baysal, president and CEO of SEBA Group, and board member of IREPAS, Didem Taskiran, long products sales manager for Colakoglu Metalurji, Tommy McCartin, principal economist, and manager of metals forecasting at S&P Global, and lastly, Andrew Pappas, managing director and head of asset-backed lending (ABL), special industries, at BMO.
The first session, which focused on how long steel products have lately been caught between weak demand and rising barriers to international trade, was presented by Tommy McCartin. McCartin discussed the 2025 price outlook for rebar, outlining the key risks as well as key demand drivers the market will likely face in 2025.
“Globally, we see economic growth below 3 percent over the next several years,” he said. “In the US we expect growth for 2025 could average less than 2 percent. Production cuts are seen as the most supportive factor for price growth in 2025,” he added.
McMartin said S&P Global Research data indicates the global price of iron ore, a key component of steel production, will likely average about $100/ton in 2025, with the price outlook for 2026 seen slightly lower. Globally, scrap prices are expected to average about $300/mt, while on the domestic front, McCartin expects expanded Section 232 tariffs will likely be a key component of a Trump presidency.
Moving on to the panel discussion, McCartin said that he expects more consolidation within the US rebar markets. “If you can’t compete on price, you’re either going to get bought out or have to close your plant,” he said.
F.D. Baysal, also contributing to the panel discussion, added that many rebar mills that continue to lose money could be converted with minimal effort to produce more profitable wire rod. “Wire rod markets are healthier in the US than rebar,” he said. “That’s why the pricing is higher.”
Globally, Baysal said China is the biggest factor in their analysis. China is likely to continue to overproduce and is expected to export more than 100 million tons of steel in 2025. “China will continue producing and exporting which will keep prices low,” he said. “The US economy is stable and the best among many countries.”
Didem Taskiran, of Colakoglu Metalurji, also sitting on the panel, said global rebar prices could remain hard pressed to increase much in the new year as additional production capacity in the form of mini mills comes online in 2025.
Panel moderator Askin responding to an audience question, brought up the topic of the scenario for Turkish steel production and exports going forward. “Trump is good for steel, but not so great for steel traders who will have to negotiate an increasing amount of tariffs,” he said. “Regarding high Turkish energy costs, the continued reliance on Russian natural gas will likely continue not just for Turkey, but for the whole world,” he added. “We expect to see more protectionism going forward with markets becoming increasingly more local, which will make the lives of traders increasingly more difficult.”
In the third session, Andrew Pappas, of BMO, Pappas said of the economic, and political situation in the US, “The US is a relatively decent market right now, compared to overseas markets.” He said he remains upbeat on the US economy, though conceding there remains a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the effects of a Trump presidency.
Andrew Pappas commented on the pros and cons of a Trump presidency on the global steel business. “One of the pros with Trump is that he is good for growth, especially the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, and less regulation,” Pappas said. “On the cons side, higher tariffs could cause retaliation by other countries against the US, deportations could lead to a labor shortage, while tax cuts could further increase growing government debt.”
“Assuming that imports continue to decline year on year, growing overcapacity is good for the construction industry,” Pappas said. “Overall, we expect it to be really difficult for imports to penetrate the US markets given this scenario. The winners in this market will be the domestic construction industry working with mills, while the losers will be importers as well as many of the smaller domestic mills that have higher production costs.”
“We’ll probably see 25 percent tariffs across the board on Chinese imports, though with regard to Chinese EVS moving into Mexico, tariffs could rise to 100-200 percent,” he said. Pappas believes that Trump will focus in the near term on moving production and manufacturing back into the US. “As was seen during the Covid pandemic, you can’t really rely on global supply chains,” he said. “During Trump 1.0, tariffs brought production back to the US and prices declined. Globally, the use of tariffs is on the rise. During the Biden administration, one thing that he did not change was the use of tariffs.”
Following the presentations and panels, Murat Eryilmaz of SteelOrbis presented the 2025 Lifetime Achievement award in long products to F.D. Baysal, of SEBA Group, a 40-year veteran of the global steel industry.