Ex-China HRC prices have posted a sharp fall today, October 17, after HRC futures prices dropped by 4.87 percent due to the lower-than-expected stimulus measures for the real estate sector announced by the government. HRC export sales have accelerated at lower levels.
Export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have dropped by $10-15/mt today to $515-525/mt FOB, which is also $17.5/mt lower on average from last week. Some mills are still holding their official offers at $530-540/mt FOB, but these levels are not viewed as reflecting the real market today, especially as one of the leading mills has already signed a contract at $515/mt FOB, according to market sources.
The tradable prices for Chinese origin SS400/Q235 and Q195 HRC have settled at $500-510/mt FOB, down $15/mt today and over the past week. “I would say this [$500/mt FOB] is the level everyone is discussing today, and which is available from small mills,” a large Chinese trader said. Another market source confirmed that a deal for Chinese Q235 has already been heard to Vietnam at $515/mt CFR, versus the previous level at $530/mt CFR heard early this week.
In addition, there has been market talk about around 45,000 mt of Chinese Q195 HRC traded to Turkey just lately at $540-543/mt CFR, while offers were at $555-560/mt CFR to this destination early this week.
“The stimulus measures are not as expected, so we need to cut offers to boost sales,” one other Chinese trader said, adding that a number of deals have been confirmed at $500-505/mt FOB for most grades except SAE1006/1008. As SteelOrbis reported earlier today, October 17, Ni Hong, Chinese minister for housing and urban-rural development, stated that China will increase the amount of credit available for “white list” real estate projects to RMB 4 trillion ($562 billion) by the end of 2024. And though the amount of the new expenditure is high - up to RMB 1.77 trillion by the end of the year - market analysts believe it is not enough to change the current weak domestic demand picture, at least in the short term.
Average local HRC price in China has settled at RMB 3,620-3,700/mt ex-warehouse, down RMB 45/mt over the past two days.
As of October 17, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,436/mt ($482/mt), decreasing by RMB 142/mt ($32/mt) or 4.0 percent since October 10, while down 4.87 percent compared to the previous trading day, October 16.