Although the mood among Chinese HRC export suppliers has started to improve this week on the back of the slight recovery locally, the ex-China HRC price trend has been unclear given that HRC offers from Chinese exporters have continued to fluctuate during the past week. Thus, customers in the main trade destinations, including Vietnam and Turkey, have been cautious in terms of new purchases and prefer to maintain a wait-and-see stance, while in the Middle East, the UAE in particular, buyers have been refraining from new deals even though ex-China offers have softened further. In the meantime, ex-India HRC prices have dropped slightly amid the persistent negative outlook, while local Indian HRC prices have declined further amid depressed demand and a halt in restocking. Furthermore, a pessimistic mood continues to prevail in the EU HRC market, while both local and import HRC prices have dropped further.
This week, the ex-China HRC price trend has been unclear given that HRC offers from Chinese exporters have continued to fluctuate during the week, with most HRC offers increasing since the beginning of last week, but having fallen slightly last Friday, September 13. At the same time, the mood among market insiders has started to improve this week as some recovery has been reported in local HRC prices in China amid increasing HRC futures prices and the anticipated easing of monetary policy in China following the US interest rate cut by 50 basis points. In particular, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC by major Chinese mills have settled at $460-465/mt FOB, for end of October-November shipment, with a midpoint at $462.5/mt FOB, up by $2.5/mt since the beginning of last week, but down by $5/mt since last Friday. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been reported at $455-458/mt FOB, compared to $435-450/mt FOB last week. “Offers from Anfeng have been voiced at $456-458/mt FOB,” a Chinese trader said. Meanwhile, the tradable prices for ex-China SS400 and Q195 HRC have been estimated at $450-455/mt FOB levels, versus $447-460/mt FOB at the end of last week and up by $10-15/mt since the beginning of last week.
Ex-India HRC prices have been dropped for Europe in line with broader global trends, but have remained stable for the Middle East and Southeast Asian regions, though only stray deals for very small volumes have been confirmed in the market. Specifically, ex-India HRC prices have settled at $540-550/mt FOB, against $540-560/mt FOB at the beginning of last week and are mainly unchanged compared to Friday, September 13. In the meantime, talk about negotiations for new deals in the UAE has been circulating in the market this week, though most market insiders emphasize that deal prices should be at $500/mt FOB or even lower to compete with Chinese suppliers.
In Vietnam, import HRC trade has remained limited this week as most customers have been expecting more clarity over the price direction, while for now the market has been witnessing continuous ups and downs in prices from Chinese suppliers. The SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam has moved at $480-485/mt CFR, up by $5/mt over the past week, but down by $5-10/mt since the end of last week-beginning of this week, based on indicative offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC, while no new deals have been reported so far. Meanwhile, following a few deals for around 5,000 mt for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC at $460/mt CFR at the beginning of this week, up by $10/mt week on week, most offers have settled at $465-470/mt CFR by Friday, September 19, compared to $460-475/mt CFR at the end of last week, but versus $450-455/mt CFR 10 days ago.
In Europe, domestic HRC prices have decreased once again this week, as market conditions have kept worsening due to the high inventory levels of service centres, which do not plan any restocking in the short run. Specifically, local HRC offers from European mills have been estimated at €560-580/mt ex-works for October delivery, against €570-600/mt ex-works last week. Domestic HRC offers in Italy have been voiced at around €570-580/mt ex-works, the same as last week, though offers from mills in the north of Europe have settled at €560-580/mt ex-works, down by €10-20/mt over the past week. According to market insiders, mills have been forced to cut their prices for HRC to maintain market shares and are ready to keep outputs stable “at least for now” to get free carbon emissions allowances, which are granted based on actual output levels. In the meantime, offers for import HRC have been voiced at €530-560/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, against €530-580/mt CFR last week. Offers directly from Asian mills, including those from Vietnam, have been reported at €528-540/mt CFR southern Europe, against €540-545/mt CFR last week. Furthermore, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been voiced at around $610-630/mt CFR, including duty, which translates to around €545-560/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week.
HRC import prices have continued fluctuating in Turkey, while domestic mills have generally kept their offers stable. Chinese Q195 HRC, 3 mm and higher, has been on offer to Turkey at $490-495/mt CFR this week for November shipments, while earlier the levels were at $500-503/mt CFR. Some negotiations have been underway, particularly with pipe-makers, but no significant tonnage is heard to have changed hands. According to sellers, every price for import material at $490/mt CFR and lower should be workable for Turkish re-rollers, who have also been trying to increase their prices for coated and cold rolled steel this week. In the local market, Turkey’s HRC prices have remained at $570-590/mt ex-works as workable levels, while for exports mills are starting negotiations at $580-585/mt FOB, but the traders assume $10/mt discounts are possible given the weak demand in the EU.
In the UAE, Emirati buyers have continued to delay purchases and have chosen to just watch the market, even though HRC import offers, particularly from China, have continued to soften. Ex-China, SS400 HRC offers to the UAE for October shipment have dropped by $5/mt to $490-505/mt CFR. However, Emirati buyers have reported hearing lower prices from China at around $480-485/mt CFR. On the other hand, this week a few Indian suppliers have offered HRC to the GCC at $540-550/mt CFR even though the majority of Indian suppliers still prefer not to give offers to the GCC due to the weak trade there. Furthermore, HRC offers from Japanese suppliers have remained at around $500/mt CFR for October shipment since last week.