The ex-China HRC price trend has been lacking clarity as offers have showed different directions depending on the supplier. Specifically, offers from traders have been lacking a clear price direction since, while the tradable prices have remained stable or even declined slightly in the Middle East over the past week, offers for ex-China HRC in Asia, in Vietnam and Pakistan in particular, have showed a slight rebound, though most buyers have been insisting on additional discounts. Meanwhile, ex-India HRC prices remained relatively stable despite extremely slow sales, with customers in the main trade destinations, including those from the Gulf region, focusing on cheaper ex-China coils. At the same time, as HRC prices have continued to fall this week, Turkish flat steel spot traders have cut prices over the past week. As for Europe, local HRC prices have failed to rise in new deals amid insufficient demand.
Although the mood has changed slightly in the Chinese HRC market, with HRC futures prices showing some rebound, sentiments among Chinese HRC mills have not improved much, with most producers maintaining their offers at the same levels as last week, or even dropping their prices to attract buyers. More specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from most large Chinese mills have settled at $490-505/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $497.5/mt FOB, down by $7.5/mt week on week, for December shipment mainly. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced at $480-485/mt FOB, versus $490-500/mt FOB last week. However, offers from traders have been lacking a clear price direction since, while the tradable prices have remained stable or even declined slightly in the Middle East over the past week, offers for ex-China HRC in Asia have showed a slight rebound, though most buyers have been insisting on additional discounts. The tradable prices for SS400/Q235 HRC have been estimated at $480-490/mt FOB, down by $2/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained relatively unchanged over the past week, showing only a slight downward bias, though overseas sales have been extremely slow in the face of competitive challenges led by supplies from China, and with buyers from Europe and the Middle East not responding to offers in reaction to weak demand. Besides, according to sources, since the export market remains sluggish, Indian mills are trying to push more tonnages in their local market, where flat product demand is also weak. In particular, offers for ex-India HRC have settled at $520-540/mt FOB, down by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. According to sources, Indian mills do not have many export orders, with only a few reported at $520-525/mt FOB and lower in the Middle East. Meanwhile, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have been voiced at $590/mt CFR, or around $540-545/mt FOB, mainly the same as last week, though demand has remained sluggish due to safeguard and antidumping risks.
In Vietnam, offers for ex-China HRC to Vietnam have increased slightly following some rebound seen in HRC futures prices in China. After several deals signed in recent days at $495-500/mt CFR for December shipment, offers for ex-China Q235 HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at $500-505/mt CFR, Thus, offers prices for ex-China Q235 HRC have increased by $5/mt week on week. Indicative offers for SAE1006 HRC have been voiced at $515-520/mt CFR for December shipment, mainly the same as last week, though market insiders have been reporting bids at $510/mt CFR. At the same time, according to sources, most Vietnamese buyers have been interested only in purchases for prompt shipment, as antidumping duty on ex-China HRC imports is expected to be imposed from early December. At the same time, the gap between ex-China SAE1006 HRC prices and other foreign suppliers’ prices has been widening this week, with offers for ex-Japan, ex-South Korea and ex-Indonesia HRC ranging at $530-560/mt CFR, depending on the supplier. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $510-515/mt CFR, against $520/mt CFR last week, based on the most competitive ex-China offers and Vietnamese customers’ price ideas.
Furthermore, in Asia the long-awaited start of Malaysian HRC sales with the launch of the production line at Eastern Steel is finally happening, with the mill heard to have already sold trial lots in the domestic market. This will be the first HRC producer in Malaysia, but in general market sources do not expect a strong impact from the increased HRC supply to the global market, SteelOrbis learned from the market this week.
The Turkish flat steel market has weakened once again from mid-November, under pressure from relatively slow demand, at times aggressive imports, and sliding import scrap prices. Local HRC prices in Turkey have slid by $5-10/mt over the past week to $595-610/mt ex-works, while for exports Turkish mills are eager to get $560-580/mt FOB, versus $540-550/mt FOB in the highest bids. In the import segment, China has had the lowest prices during the week at $515-520/mt CFR and, according to sources, two Turkish buyers have made sizeable bookings within this range. However, the information has not been fully confirmed by the time of publication. The most recent offers from China have been at $525-528/mt CFR due to some positivity regarding futures and iron ore prices in China. No solid ex-Egypt offers have been heard, while Russia’s offers have this week been at $500/mt CFR and $530/mt CFR for sanctioned and non-sanctioned material, respectively. In North Africa, Russia has cut its price from $520/mt to $510-515/mt CFR.
In the UAE, despite slow local demand, Emirati purchasers in need of stocks have shown some interest in importing, particularly choosing China, Japan, and Taiwan. As a result, UAE-based pipe makers have purchased 50,000-60,000 mt of HRC from China at $520-525/mt CFR for January shipment. While current Chinese offers to the UAE are at $520-530/mt CFR, down $5/mt from the previous week, market players report far lower levels, with non-VAT traders offering at about $510-515/mt CFR. According to another report, Japan and Taiwan have sold 30,000-40,000 mt of HRC to Emirati re-rollers at $530-540/mt CFR for shipment in January. The previous deals from Japan and Taiwan were done at $535/mt CFR and $538/mt CFR, respectively. From Indian suppliers, offers to the UAE have been received at $550-565/mt CFR, the same as last week. However, the larger Indian mills who had withdrawn their offers in previous weeks have returned this week, attempting to achieve higher prices at $565-570/mt CFR.
The European HRC market has remained relatively quiet this week, with local mills struggling to secure higher prices in new transactions, and so most local HRC offers have moved sideways or showed only a slight upward bias in workable prices over the past week. Official offers from Italian mills have been voiced at around €590/mt ex-works for delivery in January, while tradable prices for December delivery HRC have been voiced at €560-570/mt ex-works, versus €550-555/mt ex-works levels last week, though some market insiders still believe it is possible to achieve below €560/mt ex-works. Besides, offers for local HRC in northern Europe have been voiced from mills at €600-620/mt ex-works for January delivery, the same as last week, though workable prices have been heard at €560-580/mt ex-works, against €550-570/mt ex-works last week. In the import segment, trade has remained slow with many foreign suppliers refraining from giving any offers to Europe this week. Indicative prices for ex-Asia HRC have settled at €560-590/mt CFR, up by €10/mt week on week. Furthermore, offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been voiced at around €590-620/mt CFR southern Europe, including duty, versus €580-620/mt CFR last week, though no interest has been seen from EU customers.