In the first week of November, most hot rolled coil (HRC) suppliers in the global market have been maintaining their prices relatively stable, with Chinese HRC mills increasing their prices only slightly in anticipation of more stimulus measures, though tradable prices have moved sideways. As a result, Vietnam’s HRC import prices have been reported at the same levels as last week in occasional ex-China HRC deals. At the same time, ex-India HRC prices have moved sideways, though local price hikes by mills are anticipated. European HRC prices have also been stable amid slow trade, while Turkey’s flat steel market has remained rather weak, under pressure from slowing domestic demand, fluctuating Chinese HRC offers and overall insufficient exports. HRC import activity has slowed down in the UAE, with offers remaining relatively stable.
Although ex-China HRC prices from mills have increased slightly over the past week, tradable prices have remained relatively stable or have shown only a slight upward bias given that trading activity for Chinese HRC exports has remained quiet, while both overseas buyers and traders have been holding back due to the uncertainty surrounding China’s steel market. Specifically, export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC given by major Chinese mills have settled at $510-525/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $517.5/mt FOB, up by $7.5/mt week on week. While a number of mills have been offering at $530-535/mt FOB, the same as last week, even despite the better mood locally, these offers are still considered to be too high to be acceptable, according to sources. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been heard at $500-510/mt FOB, against $495-510/mt FOB last week. At the same time, the tradable prices for SS400/Q235 HRC have been estimated at $500-510/mt FOB, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
Ex-India HRC prices have remained relatively stable at $520-545/mt FOB, depending on the destination, though sentiments have improved slightly on the export front. According to sources, a trade for 2,000 mt was reported by an eastern India-based mill at $590/mt CFR Antwerp, while another integrated mill concluded a trade for 3,000 mt at $595/mt CFR Rotterdam, though this information has not been confirmed by the time of publication. Furthermore, a deal for around 20,000 mt of ex-India HRC has been signed at below $580/mt CFR. According to sources, these deals have to be with very prompt shipment to arrive by mid-December at the latest and avoid potential retrospective dumping duty. In the meantime, in the local market, the sources said that ex-Mumbai HRC trade prices are stable at INR 48,500/mt ($577/mt), while trade prices are also unchanged at INR 50,000/mt ($594/mt) ex-Chennai in the south, with market participants observing that the strong declines seen in the earlier week were checked by reports of November base price hikes by mills expected to be announced over the course of the next few days.
Trade activity has been very limited in Vietnam´s HRC import market given no signs of a significant demand recovery, while import prices have mainly moved sideways following fluctuations in Chinese HRC futures prices. offers from Chinese suppliers have been voiced at $525-530/mt CFR, mainly the same as at the beginning of this week and against $525/mt CFR last week. According to sources, deals have been rare, though a few deals for around 20,000 mt in total have been signed at $525/mt CFR for December shipment. Offers for ex-China Q235 HRC have been reported at $510-515/mt CFR for December shipment, the same as last week, while a few deals for Q195 HRC have been heard at $508/mt CFR. Furthermore, according to sources, this week offers from Indonesia for SS400/SPHS HRC have been at $550/mt CFR.
Local HRC prices in the EU have mainly remained unchanged over the past week with mills continuing to target higher offers for the first quarter of 2025, though workable prices for coils for December delivery remain stable at €50/mt lower. Specifically, official offers from Italian mills have been voiced at €570-580/mt ex-works for delivery in December, and at around €600-610/mt ex-works for January delivery, mainly the same as last week, while tradable prices for December delivery are still voiced at €550-555/mt ex-works levels. Besides, offers for local HRC in northern Europe have been voiced from mills at €600-620/mt ex-works for January delivery, the same as last week, though workable prices have been heard at €550-570/mt ex-works in a few deals this week. Meanwhile, the import segment has been affected by safeguard and antidumping risks, coupled with rather uncompetitive prices for most import HRC as compared to local quotes. Indicative prices for ex-Asia HRC have remained at €550-580/mt CFR levels. According to sources, trade has been slack, though talk about a deal for 20,000 mt of ex-India HRC at below $580/mt CFR or around €535-540/mt CFR has been circulating in the market.
In Turkey, local HRC prices have slid to around $605-620/mt ex-works base, down by around $5/mt over the past week, taking into account buyers’ reluctance to restock and the pressure on prices. Still, the discounts provided by mills have been minor since they are not in a rush, counting on some livelier exports by December. However, for now exports are slow as bids from the EU are rare and far below Turkish mills’ indications. Exporters are offering at $570-590/mt FOB while even $560/mt FOB is unlikely to be workable, sources estimate. In North Africa, there is a strong competition with Russia, which is selling large lots to the region at $520/mt CFR or around $480/mt FOB. In Turkey’s import HRC segment, China has been offering at $535-540/mt CFR this week, with no deals heard yet. Market players report that Turkish buyers may be ready to book some lots shortly, targeting $525-530/mt CFR now when the US election has been decided and new stimulus measures are expected in China.
In the UAE, after significant restocking last week, the majority of Emirati purchasers remain on pause in terms of imports. In the meantime, as there has been no significant shift in China's hot rolled coil prices, the majority of exporters' offers have remained stable or silent. According to reports, Chinese suppliers are offering SS400 at around $530-540/mt CFR for December shipment to the UAE. Despite the slowdown in import activity by Emirati buyers, sources report that Chinese suppliers sold 30,000 mt of SS400 HRC to the UAE at $540/mt CFR. Moreover, similar price stability has been seen from Indian suppliers, and, after deals, their offers for this week have remained at $550-560/mt CFR to the UAE. However, Japanese suppliers have chosen to pause offers this week after closing a deal to the UAE at $535/mt CFR.