US flat steel markets were mostly lower this week in continued thin trade, as the market took its pricing cues from steady to lower September scrap pricing and continued slack demand for finished steel products, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
This week’s SteelOrbis hot-rolled coil assessment stands at $685-705/nt ($755-777/mt) or $34.25-35.25/cwt., delivered to customer, off slightly from $690-710/nt ($761-783/mt) or 35.00/cwt., the week of August 26.
“This week’s flat steel markets are steady to lower,” said one flat steel contact. “We’re anticipating scrap to be down $20/gt, so there will be additional pressure exerted on flat products.”
At last call, the market for September ferrous scrap is assessed sideways to August values on the US East Coast, while the Midwest region reports shredded scrap down $20/gt ($22/mt) from August, while other grades such as cuts and primes are assessed sideways. The September buy cycle for scrap is expected to settle before Tuesday, September 10.
On the mill side, on September 2, steel maker Nucor announced its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) would remain flat for a second week at $710/nt ($783/mt) FOB mill.
“There’s just not much demand right now for finished products,” said one Midwest market insider. “The flat-rolled market is basically dead, because lots of mills have operational problems or are on downtime for maintenance.”
Industry reports indicate as much 1.8 million short tons of mostly flat steel capacity will be offline between September and December as mills complete scheduled annual maintenance programs. Insiders said many of these scheduled outages have been moved up this year by 30-60 days, because several interest rate cuts expected by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the fast-approaching November US presidential election might result in potentially better demand for finished steel products as economic conditions improve in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025. An early exit from planned maintenance, insiders added, would allow US mills to sell into this higher priced steel market earlier in the fourth quarter and into Q1 2025.
“Most of my clients are asking whether now is the time to lock in pricing, or wait, and my answer is undeniably yes,” a steel market analyst told SteelOrbis on September 6. “On a global basis, this is the time to lock in pricing for hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, galvanized, or anything steel. I think prices are headed higher, and the mills are starting to set up the circumstances right now to make it happen.”
With regard to the much-anticipated Fed rate cuts’ effect on steel, the analyst said, “I don’t expect much upward movement in the price of steel, because the recent high rates were meant to fight inflation.” He continued, “The cuts are likely only to keep things from getting worse, because rate cuts are best at preventing more inflation.”
In the CRC markets, pricing continued its downward trend, settling about $15/nt ($16.53/mt) less at $940-950/nt ($1,036-1,047/mt) delivered to customer, off from $955-965/nt ($1,053-1,064/mt) the week of August. 26. The current spread between HRC and CRC is assessed at $250/nt ($276/mt). Analysts told SteelOrbis recently that they expect the spread - which had ballooned to nearly $400/nt($441/mt) in recent years- to decline to average $200-$250/nt in the near term as markets return to more “historical norms.”
In the HDG markets, traders report little new spot activity with prices off about $5/nt ($5.51/mt) at $860-870/nt ($948-959/mt) or $43.00-$43.50/cwt. delivered to customer.