Following several weeks of trending down, ex-China billet offers, particularly in Turkey, have rebounded, mainly due to the increase in futures prices in China. Turkish buyers have remained rather silent given their active restocking done earlier and currently they prefer to wait and watch market developments.
According to sources, the latest indications for ex-China billet for October shipments have inched up today to $480/mt CFR, versus $470-475/mt CFR yesterday. Prior to that, the workable billet prices from China in the Turkish market had been reported at $460-470/mt CFR and maybe slightly lower, while the mood had been worse than it currently is. Still, many believe it is a “dead cat bounce” and expect Chinese billet offers to soften at least to the levels seen at the end of last week. However, while futures prices are trending up in China, a price decline for billet is unlikely and the buyers will have to wait.
Billet offers of other Asian origins remain unclear for now, since the sellers had chosen to step back at the end of last week, being unable and unwilling to compete with the low ex-China offers. Currently, ex-Indonesia billet is evaluated in Turkey at $485/mt CFR, up $5/mt on the lower end, while Malaysian billet is estimated at not lower than $495/mt CFR for October shipments, similar to the previous levels.
Ex-Ukraine billet was available at $510/mt CFR this week, in line with the previous offers last week and up from a $500/mt CFR deal closed in the same period. However, the supplier has chosen to step back from the market for now, aiming to see a clearer situation.
There are limited offers for ex-Russia and ex-Donbass billets in Turkey with most indications at $490/mt CFR, according to market sources. With the freight from the Black Sea and the Azov Sea increasing by around $5/mt due to the start of the grain season, this translates to $465/mt FOB on average. “We consider prices to be not below $480/mt FOB, so we are staying out of the market for now,” one of the Russian producers said.