The new week in the Turkish billet market has started quietly as most buyers are trying to gain a better understanding of the Chinese price trend. For now, ex-China billet offers remain on the low side, similar to the end of last week. However, even a further price decline is considered possible, especially if some traders choose to go short.
At the end of last week, there was information about a 50,000 mt billet lot booked by an Izmir region-based Turkish mill at $465/mt CFR for October shipment. Currently, most market players believe the deal did in fact take place and, moreover, given today’s FOB indications from China, $460/mt CFR levels and maybe even slightly lower ones are considered possible.
Ex-Asia billet cargoes, particularly from Malaysia, are reported to be offered at $495/mt CFR from one supplier, versus $500-505/mt CFR earlier. No fresh firm ex-Indonesia offers have been reported for now, while the indications are estimated at $480-485/mt CFR for October shipments.
Higher workable prices have been reported for non-Asian and non-toxic alternative billet origins. According to sources, an ex-Ukraine medium-sized billet cargo was initially offered at $510/mt CFR for October delivery and has been sold at $500/mt CFR base. The shorter lead time and the possibility of booking smaller lots are the main advantages of such cargoes for Turkish buyers over ex-Asia volumes.
Iranian billet suppliers, however, are having a hard time competing with China, while offering at around $485/mt DAP Karabuk. According to Turkish sources, Iranian billet may be booked only in tiny lots and for prompt deliveries and still only if $10-15/mt discounts are provided.
In the domestic market, billet prices from Turkish producers have been kept rather high, at $550/mt ex-works/CPT in the Izmir region, and up to $555/mt ex-works in the Iskenderun area. The lower end of the local price range is currently estimated at $530/mt ex-works as per the rumored and expected ex-Kardemir price.