US import rebar and wire rod prices were steady to down on lower anticipated September scrap pricing and continued US mill discounting programs, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. Discounting, they say, continues to limit the room for imports to secure market share against domestic long steel production.
While discussions remain few, pricing is also talked steady to down as September scrap is being discussed lower versus August settles, which were reported little changed from sideways to lower US Midwest and higher East Coast scrap pricing during the July buy cycle.
“Overseas loaded truck material in Houston is talked lower at $35.25/cwt.,” said one Gulf Coast import rebar dealer. “We’re hearing that low demand and continued mill discounting is causing the price of import rebar to decline on the US Gulf Coast.”
US Gulf Coast loaded truck basis rebar is assessed $1.25/cwt. ($25/nt or $28/mt) less at $35.25/cwt., ($705/nt or $777/mt), off from $36.50/cwt ($730/nt or $805/mt) the week of Aug. 19. Loaded truck rebar from Mexico vicinity Houston was steady on the week at $36.25-$37.50/cwt. ($725-750/nt or $799-827/mt), market insiders said.
SteelOrbis contacts were noticeably less optimistic this week that an expected one-quarter to one-half point rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in September would do much to help depressed long steel pricing before the spring of 2025.
“We’re not expecting long (steel) prices to rise much before the second quarter of 2025,” said one East Coast rebar dealer. “With very little disposable income available right now, interest rate cuts are not likely to do much for depressed prices in the short term.”
Previous reports from SteelOrbis noted that as construction-related activity remained weakened with a flagging US economy, the focus of the long steel market was extending to the much-anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next scheduled meeting September 17-18. Contacts said earlier that lower interest rates could help spur growth in construction-related demand for rebar and other structural steel products as borrowing money for upstart projects became more affordable.
As current spot market demand remains muted though, market insiders continue to say that US steel mills are fighting among themselves for limited new sales, and are offering strong discounts to those buyers able to purchase sizable contracts. Independent rebar fabricators told SteelOrbis recently many larger mills are reducing competition in the marketplace by offering discounts they simply can’t match because of their smaller size and limited leverage.
While US Gulf Coast loaded truck rebar was lower this week on US mill discounting programs and continued low demand, import rebar from Egypt was steady at $36.50/cwt., ($805/mt or $730/nt) delivered US ports, following recent $0.50/cwt. ($10/nt of $11/mt) declines during the week of Aug. 12. The price remains on par with with offers from Oman and UAE which was flat again on the week at $36.50/cwt.
In the imported wire rod markets, wire rod mesh DDP loaded truck USG is quoted flat once again at at $36.50-$38.00/cwt., ($805 to $838/mt or $730-760/nt), while wire rod mesh CFR FO USG remains steady at $39.00/cwt., ($860/mt or $780/nt).
In the domestic rebar market, spot prices were steady this week at $35.00-$38.00/cwt., ($772-838/mt or $700-760/nt), following a recent decline of $2.00/cwt. ($40/nt or $44/mt) the week of Aug. 12 to $34.50-$35.50/cwt., ($690-710/nt or $761-783/mt) from previous levels at $37.50/cwt. ($750/nt or $827/mt) on reports of mill discounts, a lower September scrap outlook, abundant supply and continued unremarkable demand.
Recent financial reports indicated that there is a 71.5 percent level of certainty that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in mid-September, which would mark the first such move since the central bank began raising its benchmark overnight lending rate in March of 2022, pushing it from the near-zero level to the current 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent range, a level it has maintained since July 2023.