US import rebar and wire rod prices were steady to down this week as US domestic steel mills continue to command the majority of new business, long steel market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Imports, market insiders tell SteelOrbis, remain limited as the price spread between domestic rebar and wire rod and their import equivalents just doesn’t justify the added risk and uncertainty, especially given an environment of falling domestic finished steel and scrap prices.
“Shredded scrap (Midwest) is seen sideways to $10-$20/gt less in July, so I think we’re close to the bottom for rebar prices,” said one import rebar market insider. “I think it might be another $40/ton ($44/mt) lower to reach the bottom, and that would put us around $36.00/cwt. ($794/mt or $720/nt).”
In the imported wire rod markets, wire rod mesh DDP loaded truck USG is quoted at $36.50-$38.00/cwt. ($805-$838/mt or $730-$760/nt), versus last week’s $37.00-$38.00/cwt. ($816-$838/mt or $740-$760/nt) range.
Import rebar pricing from Egypt is quoted unchanged on the week in minimal trade at $37.00/cwt. ($816/mt or $740/nt), delivered US ports, while Bulgarian exports to US ports are quoted slightly less at $36.00/cwt. ($794/mt or $720/nt), versus last week’s $36.00-$36.75/cwt., ($794-$810/mt or $720-$735/nt) range, market insiders said.
North African rebar from Algeria on a delivered basis is discussed unchanged for a second week at $36.50/cwt. ($805/mt or $730/nt), market insiders said.
Imported rebar from Mexico on a loaded truck Houston basis is discussed unchanged at $37/cwt. ($816/mt or $740/nt). Mexican market insiders continue to point to the devaluation of the peso as “helping” Mexican export prices compete with US domestic rebar values. As the peso continues to devalue versus the US dollar, they said, July rebar, could land in Houston on a loaded truck basis at $36.25/cwt. ($799/mt or $725/nt).
One SteelOrbis market insider thinks that Mexican rebar already is competing for market share in the US.
“At a price under $37.00/cwt., Mexican rebar can be competitive,” the import rebar market insider said. “The Mexicans are in a pretty good place now with the ongoing devaluation of the peso. Right now they can offer lower prices and not face anti-dumping charges from the US.”
Domestic rebar pricing was unchanged this past week at $38.00/cwt. ($838/mt or $760/nt). The July scrap buy cycle is expected to conclude later this week with the market expected to settle by Tuesday, July 9. Most market insiders surveyed by SteelOrbis think the July scrap market will be down again versus June. Recent mill cancellation orders reported to SteelOrbis on July 2 and earlier on June 28 seem to confirm the lower July scrap price outlook, they said.