US import rebar and wire rod prices were steady to marginally lower this week, though prices could have largely bottomed, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. Prices could stabilize near current levels, they say, as a growing number of reports circulate in steel pricing circles that August scrap prices could be poised for an increase.
August scrap, they say, could potentially rise versus July settled levels, as inventories at dealers on the US East Coast and Midwest are reportedly down between 20-50 percent. The amount of increase, they say, will depend on how much scrap mills have in inventory, and how active they are as buyers during the August scrap buy cycle.
The SteelOrbis market assessment this week differs from that of the week of July 15 when prices were steady to down on lower Ohio Valley July scrap prices and continued low construction-related demand.
Even as domestic demand for rebar and wire rod continues to be low, market insiders continue to say that domestic steel mills continue to garner most of the new business, given a higher risk for imports, the availability of producer discounts, and a tight price spread between imports and domestic supplies that remains prohibitive.
One Mexico-based rebar dealer said he was “priced out” of the Chicago rebar market recently at $38.50/cwt. ($849/mt or $770/nt), because his supplies on a delivered-to-customer basis were less than $10/nt higher than that offered by local mills.
In the import rebar markets, US East Coast loaded truck basis rebar was steady versus last week at $37.00/cwt, ($816/mt or $740/nt), while US Gulf Coast loaded truck rebar was also steady at $36.50/cwt., ($805/mt or $730/nt), market insiders said.
“I think prices have bottomed out,” said one Midwest import rebar dealer. “We’re hearing higher values for August scrap that is keeping rebar prices from falling further.”
Imports from Egypt are discussed steady, though trading remains lethargic at $37.00/cwt., ($816/mt or $740/nt), delivered US port, while Bulgarian and Algerian exports to US ports were steady again at $36.00/cwt., ($794/mt or $720/nt), and $36.50/cwt., ($805/mt or $730/nt) delivered US port, respectively, market insiders said.
In the imported wire rod markets, wire rod mesh DDP loaded truck USG was quoted flat once again at $36.50-$38.00/cwt., ($805 to $838/mt or $730-$760/nt), while wire rod mesh CFR FO USG declined another $0.50/cwt., ($10/mt) to $39.00/cwt., ($860/mt or $780/nt).
Imported rebar from Mexico on a loaded truck Houston basis is last discussed flat at $37.35/cwt ($823/mt or $747/nt), market insiders said, while North African rebar from Algeria on a delivered truck basis was unchanged for a fifth week at $36.50/cwt., ($805/mt or $730/nt), market insiders said. Bulgarian supplies on a delivered truck basis remained flat at $36/cwt., ($794/mt or $720/nt), they said.
Last week’s prediction by market insiders that US domestic rebar pricing could be at the bottom was largely proved true as domestic rebar gained $0.25/cwt, ($5/nt) to an average of $37.00/cwt ($816/mt or $740/nt), delivered to customer, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Weekly domestic rebar prices have been declining steadily since mid-May, SteelOrbis data shows.