US import rebar and wire rod markets continued mostly lower this week, with further price declines possible, as domestic demand continues low and domestic steel mills continue to discount pricing to match the price of lower-priced imports, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“Domestic rebar pricing is in the $35-38.00/cwt. range and imports are falling in the same range,” said one East Coast rebar market insider about the current spot market situation. “There is no real rock bottom on pricing out there right now, however, the mills’ break-even point is somewhere around $30.00/cwt. There is no real reason to get there,” he added, “as imports are coming in around the $34.50/cwt. level for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 shipments.”
Insiders said lower priced scrap also is continuing to put downward pressure on US long steel markets. In the US Midwest, September scrap pricing for most grades was sideways to August, while shredded scrap was down $20/nt ($20.30/mt) to $350-$360/nt ($356-$366/mt).
“When scrap falls like what we saw in September, and demand remains sluggish at best with supply abundant, we get the current buyers’ market that we’re seeing right now,” he said. East Coast inventories remain high as two vessels containing import rebar and wire rod have unloaded on the US East Coast over the past several weeks, he said.
On the US East Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis is reported down $0.50/cwt. or $10/nt ($11/mt) to $35.25/cwt., matching its Gulf Coast equivalent, which is currently priced unchanged on a loaded truck US Gulf Coast basis at $35.25/cwt. ($705/nt or $777/mt), even as importer discounts continue to be reported to SteelOrbis.
As discounting continues, imports from Egypt are discussed $0.50/cwt. ($10/nt or $11/mt) less at $35.00/cwt., while quotes from Turkey and Bulgaria were discussed $0.25/cwt. ($5/nt or $5.51/mt) less at $35.25/cwt. and $35.00/cwt., respectively.
US imports of steel scrap, a key indicator of long steel pricing, might be trimmed starting in October as barely two weeks remain for members of the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) to reach an agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance to avert an expected October 1 strike at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. While the groups remain at an impasse over wages and automation issues, a strike could affect nearly 43 percent of all containerized imports that come into the US. Maritime experts estimate each day the strike continues will back up supply between 4-6 days. A one-month strike could have effects that last well into Q1 2025, they say.
Rebar contacts told SteelOrbis recently that the most likely areas to be affected by the strike include the US Northeast and the West Coast, where supplies already have been re-routed via rail in advance of the strike. Congestion on US rail line connections to the US West Coast in and around Chicago and Canadian rail yard connections is expected to increase they said. Current delays for containers (dwell times) at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are estimated at nine-plus days, maritime reports show.
“There’s not that much bar coming in right now, and many Texas-based non-union ports won’t be affected by the strike,” one Gulf Coast rebar importer told SteelOrbis recently. “The most likely areas to be affected are the Northeast and the West Coast, where much of the trade will be diverted.”