US import rebar and wire rod pricing continued to trade mostly steady this week, even as US domestic supply remains constrained with an ongoing key US wire rod plant closure, which could potentially make more room for imports to penetrate into US markets, insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
And, even as supply is reported tight by market insiders, barring an unforeseen demand increase, recent lower priced December shredded scrap settles may limit the likelihood that prices will increase much as the markets move through the holiday-shortened December trading month.
Long steel contacts said the ongoing Liberty Steel outage has allowed US suppliers more liberty to raise their prices, even though few mills have yet to actually implement those price increases because of continued competition from competitors, as long steel demand remains little changed week to week. While mill price increases haven’t really materialized too much lately, some import insiders say the trend is looking higher.
“Supply is getting tight,” said one Gulf Coast long steel importer. “People are now making plans as though the Liberty plant may not be coming back,” he continued. “On the other hand, December shredded scrap in Chicago is likely to settle at minus $10/gt to November, so that doesn’t bode well for rebar prices short term.”
On the mill side, on December 10, steelmaker Nucor announced that it will maintain its earlier $20/nt ($1.00/cwt.) wire rod price increase, though existing orders will remain price protected if shipped by December 31.
Other recent mill price increases from Nucor’s competitors may have had some unforeseen consequences, insiders said.
“The earlier CMC rebar price increase that failed to stick in the pricing markets actually had a very positive affect, whether intended or not,” said one US East Coast rebar dealer. “It stopped the price erosion, so, we are currently bouncing around on the bottom,” he continued. “Pricing (domestic) is low enough to keep imports at bay, but high enough for the mills to make a little money. And the mills are now in a position to increase prices when the situation presents itself, such as on reduced imports, a scrap price increase, or just a general business improvement.”
On the supply side, long steel market insiders reported this week that the anticipated restart of the downed Liberty Steel plant late in Q1 might depend on whether the incoming Trump administration decides to levy additional tariffs on imports of foreign steel.
“I can’t begin to predict whether the Liberty plant will restart as planned until we see what the Trump administration intends to do,” the East Coast rebar insider added. “If imports get restricted further, then, prices could rise and the wire rod mill may re-open,” he said. “If the situation remains as it is, it is doubtful in my opinion that the plant will restart.”
In the weekly import markets, US East Coast import rebar on a loaded truck basis was marginally lower at $36.25-37.25/cwt. ($725-745/nt or $799-821/mt), versus $36.50-37.50/cwt. ($730-750/nt or $805-827/mt), one week earlier. US Gulf Coast rebar on a loaded truck basis was a bit lower on the week at $35.50-36.50/cwt. ($710-730/nt or $782-805/mt), versus $35.75-36.75/cwt. ($715-735/nt or $788-810/mt) seven days ago, insiders said.
Imported wire rod mesh on a DDP loaded truck basis US Gulf is discussed stable following earlier weekly declines to $37.00/cwt. ($740/nt or $816/mt), while import wire rod last traded on average flat on the week at $36.00-38.00/cwt ($720-760/nt or $794-838/mt), versus last week’s $36.50-37.50/cwt. ($730-750/nt or $805-827/mt) range. Competition from aggressive domestic suppliers continues to limit new spot price increases on import transactions, insiders said.
Despite a continued domestic wire rod shortfall, some importers say domestic long steel supply still remains a more attractive option versus imports due to domestic mill discounting programs, shorter lead times for local delivery, and reduced geopolitical risk.
Insiders said they expect domestic wire rod pricing to potentially move higher near term as a result of the Liberty outage, with further price increases from rod mills possible soon. Higher pricing for rebar might have to wait until at least February, they said, ahead of the beginning of the 2025 spring construction season, as demand for rebar is “just not there yet, and Q1 is historically a good time for demand to pop.”
Import rebar pricing offers from Egypt were reported stable on the week on a delivered to customer basis at $35.75/cwt. ($715/nt or $788/mt), while few offers were heard this week again from Oman, UAE, or Algeria. Insiders said they expect more import penetration in the near term from Malaysia and Vietnam cargoes, where raw material costs are reduced.
Delivered rebar from Mexico vicinity Houston, Texas, on a loaded truck basis is discussed flat on the week at $35.75-37.75/cwt. ($715-755/nt or $788-832/mt). “Prices continue to trade stable to earlier December levels,” said one rebar importer that deals in Mexico. “In Texas though, we’re hearing that one domestic mill is offering $0.25/cwt. ($5/nt) discounts if buyers take material before December 31.”
Insiders said tax duty on unsold 2025 supply still on the ground as of January 1 could be assessed at 3-5 percent.