Turkey’s import scrap prices from Europe increased slightly earlier this week, while market players have largely remained optimistic during the week. As of November 6, the bids shared by a Belgium scrap exporter with German sub-collectors stood at €285/mt DAP for HMS I/II 70:30 scrap. An Amsterdam-based exporter’s bids for the same grade stood at €300/mt DAP, up by €5/mt as compared to a couple of days earlier. Two new ex-Baltic bookings disclosed to the market late on October 7 have provided support for the positive market sentiments.
Despite the current optimism, no market players expect deep sea scrap prices to move up sharply in the coming period. Due to the increasingly cold weather conditions in Turkey and in the scrap supplying regions, neither the pace of construction activities nor the pace of scrap collection is expected to accelerate. Turkish mills are expected to buy at least 20 deep sea cargoes for December shipment, while some market sources believe the total reached by the end of November may be higher, whereas others think Turkey will reduce its purchased volumes towards the end of 2024. A major supplier said he expects the ex-US scrap price will remain above $370/mt CFR in the next deal, while a source at a major Turkish mill said that the workable levels for ex-US scrap are rather at around $365/mt CFR. While both parties, sellers and buyers, agree that deep sea scrap prices are tending to move up, they do not foresee any great jump in prices. A European scrap supplier stated today, November 8, that, if Turkish mills continue to remain silent, the question will be how long suppliers can wait before panicking, adding, “We may see another fall even, who knows.”
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 0.97 percent week on week. The prices are now 5.6 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $359-366/mt CFR.
US November scrap pricing is expected to trade sideways to $5-10/gt ($5-10/mt) lower this week, as many larger US mills are expected to draw down onsite inventories of scrap, rather than buying new supply during the November buy-cycle, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. “HMS was the first grade that was canceled exclusively by the mills on October 30,” said one Midwest scrap broker. “On this grade, we’re hearing that mill supply is more than adequate, therefore we could see potentially $5-10/gt lower there, but it is not guaranteed at this point.” Other market contacts expect a larger decline across the board for November, though they cautioned that activity thus far remains muted as many market insiders were sidelined waiting for the outcome of the November 5 US presidential election before addressing their November scrap requirements.
Based on a sideways to lower November scrap call, Ohio Valley busheling scrap on a delivered to customer basis for November is forecast to settle at or below the October settled price at $375-395/gt ($381-401/mt), while shredded grades are seen at or below $370-380/gt or $376-386/mt. HMS I is likely to settle at or below the October settled price at $340/gt or $345/mt, while P&S is expected to settle at $365-375/gt or $371-381/mt at the close of the November buy-cycle.
SteelOrbis has learned that the current price for Mexican domestic shredded scrap has risen by MXN 200/mt ($10/mt) over the past week to MXN 6,800/mt ($334/mt). Additionally, HMS I/II scrap prices have remained unchanged over the same period at MXN 5,350/mt ($263/mt).
This week, local scrap prices in Italy have remained stable. Market participants are waiting to see which direction scrap prices will take in the near future and are divided in their forecasts. “There are a lot of unjustified expectations in the market generated by those mills that have granted increases in recent weeks. The production situation is negative and we are planning major shutdowns between now and January,” one steel mill official commented. According to some traders, though, the major halts Italian producers are starting to discuss will not necessarily be so long. One trader stated, “The market is slowly rising because there is more demand than supply of raw material.”
In the local scrap market in Spain, prices have remained unchanged again this week. According to sources, steel mills are trying to achieve a €10/mt decrease. Demand for scrap is generally low, as are the new orders for finished steel received by mills.
South Korean steelmarker POSCO has kept its bid prices for Japanese scrap unchanged week on week. While Japanese suppliers are seeking to raise their offer prices to South Korea, domestic scrap prices in the latter country are still moving down.
POSCO has shared bids for Japanese HS and shredded grade scrap at JPY 51,000/mt ($334/mt) CFR and JPY 49,000/mt ($321/mt) CFR, respectively. This means indications for ex-Japan H2 prices for South Korea are at JPY 42,000-43,000/mt FOB or $275-282/mt FOB.
Taiwan’s import scrap market has moved downwards over the past week with market players still monitoring the international scrap market’s reaction to the US presidential elections and the announcement due to be made after the meeting of China’s National People’s Congress.
Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers have declined to $322-325/mt CFR. The offer range for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk has widened over the past week and is now at $328-343/mt CFR.
While Japanese scrap suppliers are trying to increase their offers to Vietnam, buyers have not been convinced to accept higher offer prices yet. Offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have moved up by another $5/mt over the past week to $345-350/mt CFR. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offer prices are currently at $370-375/mt CFR.
In the current week, Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap have remained stable at JPY 42,500/mt ($279/mt), while up by $1/mt on US dollar basis due to the changes in the Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rate. This level shows that FOB prices are still at JPY 43,500/mt ($286/mt) for this grade, with the US dollar price up $1/mt since last week.