Iron ore prices rebound gradually as better demand emerges in Sept, outlook uncertain

As of today, Thursday, September 12, import iron ore prices in China have increased compared to yesterday and over the past week amid the improved confidence in the market, which has caused iron ore futures prices to increase by 4.2 percent compared to September 5. Higher steel prices and the better iron ore demand outlook have resulted in the recent price movements, but the outlook for the longer term still remains uncertain.

Iron ore fines with 62 percent Fe content have indicated a rise of $2.15/mt on September 12 to $94.25/mt CFR. This level is $4.05/mt above that seen on September 5. Brazilian iron ore with 65 percent Fe has increased by $2.05/mt on September 12 to $107.3/mt CFR, while up $3.5/mt week on week, SteelOrbis has learned.

47 deals for a total of 769,600 mt of iron ore were signed at the Corex platform on September 12. In particular, one deal for 170,000 mt of 65 percent Carajas fines was done at $107.3/mt CFR for delivery during September 11-20, while 80,000 mt of 62.2 percent Newman blended lumps were traded at the October index + $0.119/mt, for shipment during October 16-25.

During the given week, import iron ore prices have moved on a rebounding trend amid the improved profitability on the steelmakers’ side. Demand for iron ore has improved ahead of the holiday on September 15-17 in China, while there have been fewer supplies arriving at Chinese ports, also bolstering prices. As for the coming week, deliveries of iron ore in the global market are expected to decrease. So, it it thought that import iron ore prices in the Chinese market will edge up further in the coming week.

However, expectations for October are uncertain as market analysts still see weak construction steel demand in China, while iron ore supply will increase. In particular, Brazilian miner Vale, has updated its guidance for iron ore production from 310-320 million mt earlier to the range of 323-330 million mt for 2024 amid the launch of the VargemGrande 1 wet processing plant.

Iron ore futures prices at Dalian Commodity Exchange have increased by 3.97 percent today to RMB 707/mt ($99.3/mt) compared to the previous trading day, September 11, while increasing by RMB 28.5/mt ($4/mt) compared to August 29.

As of September 12, rebar futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,185/mt ($447/mt), increasing by RMB 102/mt ($14.3/mt) or 3.3 percent since September 5, while up 3.11 percent compared to the previous trading day, September 11.

Imported iron ore prices in China (week-on-week basis)

Price includes VAT.  

Nationwide iron ore concentrate prices (66 percent Fe)

Price includes VAT. 

$1 = RMB 7.1214