The local scrap market in Germany was going through a rough time in the first week of November. Domestic scrap prices were declining and it was thought that the downward trend could also continue into December. In the current week, though, the consensus among market sources is for a sideways movement of scrap prices in December, because most mills have completed their orders and are preparing for the Christmas holidays.
In the second week of November, the situation seemed to have stabilized, with most Italian mills having concluded scrap deals from Germany at an average price of €305-310/mt delivered to mill for E5 scrap. In the local German market, general scrap prices were down €3-7/mt based on the grade, but scrap demand in export markets was still active, especially from Italy.
Sales in the local German market were not great in the second week of the month, so scrap yards preferred to sell for export, with European export yards buying scrap at €280-290/mt DAP. In the current week, scrap collection prices for export yards have been declining towards the lower end of the range, with freight to Turkey costing $21-22/mt, according to sources.
Some major German steel producers are still struggling with orders. Their order books are almost empty until mid-January or with very low sales totaling less than 10,000 mt. German mills’ scrap inventories were full during the month of November. Local scrap flow is still extremely slow amid the winter weather conditions and also due to reduced finished steel demand, especially from the automotive and construction industries. According to reports, Volkswagen will close its No. 3 production line and is negotiating with workers’ unions, while the Ford site in Cologne is planning to lay off 2,900 workers.
At the same time, the political situation has worsened in Germany, with German chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissing finance minister Christian Lindner. Germany is expected to hold an early election in February 2025, according to market sources, causing uncertainty not just about the future prospects for the steel and scrap markets, but also in relation to the deepening economic crisis.
The situation in the local scrap market in Germany has remained fairly stable this week. Almost everyone has enough inventories and has “earned enough money for this year”, as one local scrap trader said. For this reason, as the trader commented, combined with an energy price hike planned in the first week of December, most mills plan to close earlier for the Christmas holidays and for maintenance. On the other hand, others believe earnings were actually scarce this year and they are continuing their trading activities.
Demand in the local German finished steel market has remained unchanged compared to the beginning of November, with the automotive and construction sectors struggling. This scenario contributes to a decline in scrap demand too and a reduction in sales prices. This is why most traders are refusing to sell and prefer to keep inventories. “It’s time to sit back, relax and prepare for Christmas,” a source stated, adding, “We’ll see what happens after the elections next year.”
“The expectations for December are of a flat market [for finished steel]. German mills don’t want to sell at low prices. They would rather close up for maintenance and the holidays,” another source commented.
According to the latest data provided by the Bundesvereinigung Deutscher Stahlrecycling-und Entsorgungsunternehmen e.V, in the first 20 days of November, scrap prices moved down by €1.6-7.5/mt month on month. On year-on-year basis, scrap prices indicated a decline ranging from €8.7/mt to €22.9/mt, except for E5 grade, the prices of which rose by €4.9/mt year on year.
The prices are provided by Bundesvereinigung Deutscher Stahlrecycling-und Entsorgungsunternehmen e.V. are average prices for domestic transactions across Germany in the first 20 days of the given month.
Scrap grade |
Price: November 2024 (€/mt) |
Price: October 2024 (€/mt) |
Price: November 2023 (€/mt) |
Monthly Change (€/mt) |
Annual change (€/mt) |
E1 - Old steel scrap |
262.9 |
267.9 |
285.8 |
-5.0 |
-22.9 |
E2/E8 - New steel scrap |
308.7 |
310.3 |
317.4 |
-1.6 |
-8.7 |
E3 - Heavy old steel scrap |
303.7 |
311.2 |
312.9 |
-7.5 |
-9.2 |
E40 - Shredded scrap |
308.4 |
310.7 |
328.7 |
-2.3 |
-20.3 |
E5M - Steel turnings |
251.3 |
256.0 |
246.4 |
-4.7 |
+4.9 |
Specifications:
E1 - Old steel scrap: thickness ≥ 4 mm, maximum dimensions 1,5 m x 0,5 m x 0,5 m
E2/E8 - New steel scrap: maximum dimensions 1,5 m x 0,5 m x 0,5 m
E3 - Heavy old steel scrap: thickness ≥ 6 mm, maximum dimensions 1,5 m x 0,5 m x 0,5 m
E40 - Shredded scrap: excluding incinerator steel scrap and collection scrap; density ≥ 1,1 mt/m3, Fe ≥ 92%
E5M - Turnings: excluding iron and automatic steel turnings