US ferrous scrap prices for September are heard sideways to down on the US East Coast on flagging export demand at US ports and low billet pricing, while the outlook for the US Midwest scrap remains mixed with higher hot rolled coil pricing from steelmaker Nucor reportedly supporting busheling values for September. Shredded and HMS#1 prices in the Midwest are seen less versus August settles on continued low finished steel pricing, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“There’s very little upside in the US East Coast scrap market for September right now,” a scrap insider told SteelOrbis this week, commenting on reports lower US dock delivered scrap pricing. “While inflows into the yards are still not good, prices have been declining since the beginning of the year on continued low demand.”
This past week, insiders said low billet pricing from abroad was also exerting downward price pressure on US scrap prices, mostly in Eastern US export markets, however this week’s rebound in global billet values on improved Chinese market sentiment was expected to reduce a portion of the expected decline. In addition, industry reports estimate nearly 1.3 million short tons of mostly flat-rolled steel capacity will be offline in the period from September through December as a result of planned maintenance outages lasting from 3 days to about three weeks. During this time, market insiders said US mills are likely to require less scrap for steel making operations, though the price of flat steel and finished steel products was likely to be supported as overall mill output is reduced.
Most planned maintenance outages usually occur later in the fourth quarter on an annual basis, however, this year, market insiders told SteelOrbis that a growing outlook for an improved steel market later this year and early in 2025 following the US presidential election and an expected September Fed rate cut has prompted many mills to move up their planned outages. An earlier exit from maintenance, they said, would allow mills to sell into a higher priced market later in the year.
Midwest busheling scrap for September is assessed sideways to $5/gt higher than the August settle of $355-$375/gt ($361-381/mt) delivered to mill. on rising Nucor CSP values. September shredded scrap is assessed $10-$20/gt below the August settle of $370-380/gt ($376-386/mt), while September HMS#1 is seen settling $10-$20/gt less than the August settle of $320/gt ($325/mt). At current, P&S scrap is discussed $20-$30/gt less than the August settle of $345-355/gt ($351-361/mt) delivered to mill, though activity remains muted, insiders said.
On the US East Coast, September busheling scrap is expected to settle sideways to $20/gt ($22/mt) less than the $350-385/gt ($356-391/mt) delivered to mill August settle, while shredded is talked $10-$20/gt less than the $370/gt ($376/mt) August settle. HMS#1 and P&S scrap are forecast to settle for September $10-$20/gt ($11-$22/mt) below the August settles of $290-315/gt ($295-320/mt), and $320-340/gt ($325-$345/mt) delivered to mill, respectively.