Steel demand in China will amount to 850 million mt in 2025, down 1.5 percent year on year, as forecasted by China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI). This means that the pace of fall will ease significantly from the drop of 4.4 percent projected for 2024.
According to the institute, though consumption in the construction sector will keep retreating, though at a slower pace, steel demand in downstream industries of machinery, automotive, energy, and home appliances is expected to show growth in 2025, The implementation of more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will provide effective support for the overall stabilization of steel demand.
The increase of steel demand in machinery is expected by MPI at 1 percent to 179 million mt in 2025. In 2024, production and sales for excavators and loaders that are closely related to infrastructure construction showed a gradual increase, while demand for medium and large tractors in agricultural machinery posted a bigger hike. And the performance will be from stable to continued increase for the major machinery sectors.
Meanwhile, the steel demand from automotive industry is projected to reach 59.8 million mt, up 4 percent from 2024. This forecast is based on the expectations of automobile production to hit around 32.9 million vehicles in 2025, moving up by 4.8 percent.
Demand for steel in home appliances and energy industries will amount to 19.4 million mt and 49.5 million mt, increasing by 8.4 percent and 1.9 percent and, respectively, year on year.
Nevertheless, the construction industry in China will still move in the negative direction and impact the whole year steel consumption. According to MPI, steel demand in construction will be 444 million mt, losing another 3.2 percent.